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Article
Publication date: 31 December 2021

Alireza Sedighi Fard

This study aims to compare many artificial neural network (ANN) methods to find out which method is better for the prediction of Covid19 number of cases in N steps ahead of the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to compare many artificial neural network (ANN) methods to find out which method is better for the prediction of Covid19 number of cases in N steps ahead of the current time. Therefore, the authors can be more ready for similar issues in the future.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors are going to use many ANNs in this study including, five different long short-term memory (LSTM) methods, polynomial regression (from degree 2 to 5) and online dynamic unsupervised feedforward neural network (ODUFFNN). The authors are going to use these networks over a data set of Covid19 number of cases gathered by World Health Organization. After 1,000 epochs for each network, the authors are going to calculate the accuracy of each network, to be able to compare these networks by their performance and choose the best method for the prediction of Covid19.

Findings

The authors concluded that for most of the cases LSTM could predict Covid19 cases with an accuracy of more than 85% after LSTM networks ODUFFNN had medium accuracy of 45% but this network is highly flexible and fast computing. The authors concluded that polynomial regression cant is a good method for the specific purpose.

Originality/value

Considering the fact that Covid19 is a new global issue, less studies have been conducted with a comparative approach toward the prediction of Covid19 using ANN methods to introduce the best model of the prediction of this virus.

Details

foresight, vol. 24 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Abstract

Details

foresight, vol. 24 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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